On February 2nd 2026, a great travesty occurred for the warm weather lovers of Boston. This date is notoriously known as Groundhog Day, where it is believed that if a groundhog, most commonly the Pennsylvania native, Punxsutawney Phil, sees its shadow and runs back into its dwelling, there will be six more weeks of winter. On the other hand, if it doesn’t see its shadow, spring is just around the corner. This year, both Punxsutawney Phil and Massachusetts’ very own “Ms. G” sleepily left their caves, saw their shadows, and fled back in, signifying a longer winter. Many devastated people, like myself, question whether this prediction is likely to come to fruition.
The Groundhog Day tradition traces back further than many people realize. It is loosely connected with the spread of Christianity. February 2nd has already been celebrated by many cultures because it is the midpoint between the Winter Solstice and Spring Equinox. In Christianity, this day coincides with Candlemas, a feast commemorating the presentation of Jesus. According to the original folklore, it is said that if Candlemas Day was sunny, there would be 40 more days of winter, while if it was cloudy, an early spring would soon follow.
This idea then spread to other European countries, like Germany, where it evolved. According to Visit PA, people began to notice that animals such as hedgehogs and badgers were often able to predict seasonal changes. As a result of the cultural significance of February 2nd, it was deemed the unofficial decision day. When settlers started emigrating to the United States throughout the 1700s and 1800s, they brought this piece of folklore with them. In Pennsylvania, where many German immigrants settled, hedgehogs weren’t native. Instead, they came upon groundhogs to carry on their tradition.
The first Groundhog Day as we know it took place in the year 1887 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Today, thousands of people travel there every single year on February 2nd to see whether Punxsutawney Phil believes spring has arrived or if we will still have six more weeks of winter to endure. Over time, this event has grown, and many states now have appointed their own groundhog, including Massachusetts’ “Ms. G.” Some states where groundhogs aren’t native have even adopted other local animals to do the prediction, such as Arizona’s rattlesnake, Agua Fria Freddie.
To figure out whether six more weeks of winter is actually likely, I decided to analyze the past climate trends in Boston from 2015 to 2025 and make an assumption based on that data. Before conducting the analysis, it was necessary to come up with a quantifiable definition for “winter.” In groundhog folklore, winter is never explicitly defined and is more of a cultural idea than a scientific one. However, that cannot be tested objectively, so I defined winter as temperatures at or below freezing (32 F). Thus, on the opposite end, I defined spring as 33 degrees F and above.
I used two main date ranges as reference points to evaluate the progression of the temperature: February 2nd (Groundhog Day) to February 23rd (the 3-week mark), and February 23rd to either March 15th or 16th (the 6-week mark, depending on leap year). For each year, I calculated the average temperature within each range and compared them.
Then, I placed the years into categories. One category was an “early spring” year, which I defined as a year that had average spring temperatures in both ranges or winter temperatures in the first range followed by spring temperatures in the second range. This classification works because even if winter conditions were evident at first, spring technically still arrived earlier than the 6-week mark. On the other hand, I identified a “long winter” year as having winter temperatures in the second range, meaning that freezing temperatures lasted through the 6-week mark, even if the first range wasn’t necessarily displaying winter temperatures.
Using daily average temperature data collected from Weather Underground, the results overall showed that 90% of the years from 2015 to 2025 had an early spring by these standards. Only one year qualified as having a long winter, and that was in fact 2015, which was the earliest year considered. With this information, it is fairly reasonable to make the assumption that even though Punxsutawney and Ms. G said there would be 6 more weeks of winter, it’s unlikely that’s true.
However, it’s critical to note that while this analysis considered 33 degrees F to be indicative of springtime or spring temperatures instead of winter ones, that’s arguably still cold. So although spring is likely to arrive somewhat earlier than 6 weeks by these standards, it may not feel much warmer.
Additionally, long-range forecasts for the rest of February and into early March support the possibility of an early spring as well. A forecast from AccuWeather, for example, predicts average temperatures within the 40s for this time period, although weather forecasts that far ahead are never guaranteed.
Though it’s not likely Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction will be accurate, especially considering that other sources estimate he has about a 30% success rate, the tradition remains an exciting thing to look forward to after a long January. Still, if Phil only works one day a year, one might argue that he should be a little better at his job.
Data:
| Year | Temp 2nd-23rd | Temp 23rd-15th/16th |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | 31.45 |
| 2016 | 31.9 | 41.8 |
| 2017 | 33.6 | 35.9 |
| 2018 | 37.1 | 38.1 |
| 2019 | 35.2 | 33.9 |
| 2020 | 37.05 | 42.6 |
| 2021 | 28.8 | 37 |
| 2022 | 35.2 | 36.2 |
| 2023 | 37.8 | 35.2 |
| 2024 | 34.5 | 40.3 |
| 2025 | 28.6 | 40.5 |
Sources:
East Boston, MA Weather History | Weather Underground. (2026). Wunderground.com. https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/us/ma/east-boston/KBOS/date/2025-3
Groundhog Day History. (2026, January 6). Visitpa.com; Pennsylvania Tourism Office. https://www.visitpa.com/blog/post/history-groundhog-day/
Singer, A. V. (2025, January 31). Q&AZ: Does Arizona have its own Punxsutawney Phil? The tangled history of Agua Fria Freddie. KJZZ. https://www.kjzz.org/the-show/2025-01-31/q-az-does-arizona-have-its-own-punxsutawney-phil-the-tangled-history-of-agua-fria-freddie
Staff, History. com. (2012, February 2). Groundhog Day: History and Facts | HISTORY. HISTORY.
https://www.history.com/articles/groundhog-day-history-and-facts